USDJPY: the 200 week moving average held the price

Since the beginning of the year the currency pair lost almost 5.0% and last week fell more than 1.5% but made a phase change, shifting from a bullish to a bearish phase.

Last week the USDJPY fell with a wide range but found some buying pressure near the 200-week moving average but still closed near the low of the week, in addition managed to close below the previous week low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

The currency pair is in a downward correction since 2016 high and broke below the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement and held at the 200 week moving average.

The stochastic is showing bullish momentum and is above the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to the upper band of a weekly support at 107.200 on a break below the Fibonacci retracement at 109.925 (scenario 1) however a break above the Fibonacci retracement at 111.986 may fuel a bullish run up to the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 114.537 (scenario 2).

USDJPY: Approaching the 200 week moving average

Since the beginning of the year the currency pair lost almost 5.0% and last week fell more than 1.0% but continues in a warning phase since late mid-March.

Last week the USDJPY fell with a narrow range but found some support at 111.040 to trim some of its losses but still closed near the low of the week, in addition managed to close below the previous week low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

The currency pair is in a downward correction since 2016 high and broke below the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement approaching the 200 week moving average.

The stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum and is below the 50 mid line.

Expecting an upward move to the upper band of a weekly support at 113.690 on a bounce from a Fibonacci retracement at 109.925 (scenario 1) however a break below the 200-week moving average at 110.084 may fuel another bearish run down to the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement at 107.864 (scenario 2).

USDJPY: Consolidating at a weekly support

Since the beginning of the year the currency pair lost almost 3.50% and last week fell more than 0.5% but continues in a warning phase since late mid-January 2017.

Last week the USDJPY initially rose but found enough resistance at the 10-week moving average to reverse and closed near the low of the week, but managed to close within the previous week range, which suggests being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.

The currency pair is in a downward correction since 2016 high and is consolidating at the confluence of a weekly support and the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement.

The stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum although is still above the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to a Fibonacci retracement at 109.925 on a break below another Fibonacci retracement at 111.986 (scenario 1) however a break above the 10-week moving average at 115.211 may trigger a bullish run back up to the weekly resistance at 118.837 (scenario 2).

USDJPY: Testing 2016 high

Since the beginning of the year the currency pair managed to stay flat with a minor gain of 0.06% and continues in a bullish phase since late November 2016.

Last week the USDJPY went back and forward without any clear direction and closed in the middle of the weekly range, also managed to close within the previous week range, which suggests being clearly neutral, neither side is in control.

The currency pair could be making a potential double top near the resistance at 118.84 and may be setting for a correction before another upward move.

The stochastic is showing an extreme overbought market and is beginning to display a weak bearish momentum.

Expecting a downward move to a weekly support at 113.69 on a bounce from the weekly resistance at 118.84 (scenario 1) and a bounce from the weekly support at 113.68 may trigger a bullish run back up to the weekly resistance at 118.84 (scenario 2).

USDJPY: Testing a weekly resistance

Since the start of the year the currency lost more than 6.0% but last week rallied more than 1.0% and last week made a phase change, shifting from an accumulation to a bullish phase.

Last week the USDJPY rose but with a narrow range and close near the high of the week, in addition managed to close above the previous week high, which suggests a strong bullish momentum. The pair may have found some resistance at 113.69 and can make a correction before another upward move.

The stochastic is showing an extreme overbought market but is still displaying bullish momentum.

Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 118.84 on a break above the previous week high at 113.90 (scenario 1) however a break below the weekly resistance at 111.04 may trigger a sell-off downward to a weekly support at 107.20 (scenario 2).

 

USDJPY: Potential triple bottom in the making

Since the start of the year the currency lost more than 15.5% but last week rose 0.2% nevertheless continues in a bearish phase since the beginning of January 2016.

Last week the USDJPY went back and forward without any clear direction but managed to close in the green, in the middle of the weekly range, in addition closed within the previous week range, which suggests being clearly neutral, neither side is showing control. The pair may have found some support at 98.89 current 2016 low and can create a triple bottom.

Stochastic is showing bearish momentum and is below the 50 mid line.

Expecting an upward move to a key level at 104.03 on a break above the previous week high at 101.84 (scenario 1) but a break above the key level at 101.84 may trigger another push upward to a weekly resistance at 107.200 (scenario 2).

USDJPY: Searching for a bottom

Since the start of the year the currency lost more than 16.5% and last week was no different with a drop of more than 1.0% nevertheless continues in a bearish phase since the beginning of January 2016.

Last week the USDJPY fell with a wide range and closed near the low of the week, in addition managed to close below the previous week low, suggesting a strong bearish momentum. The pair may find some support at 98.89 current 2016 low and can create a double bottom.

Stochastic is showing an oversold market but is still displaying bearish momentum.

Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 102.35 on a bounce of the 2016 low at 98.89 (scenario 1) however a break below the 2016 low at 98.89 may trigger a sell-off down to a Fibonacci extension at 95.15 (scenario 2).