Since the beginning of the year, the commodity lost over 7.0% but last week alone managed to rise almost 0.7% and made a phase change, shifting from a warning to a distribution phase.
Last week, copper tried to rally but found enough resistance near the 10-week moving average to reverse and closed near the low of the week, however the commodity managed to close within the previous week range, which suggests being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.
Stochastic is showing a strong bullish momentum and crossed above the oversold zone although is still below the 50 mid line.
After a 2-week downward correction, the commodity bounced from the 50-week moving average finding some support however, this past week the currency pair found some resistance at the 10-week moving average signs that the price is being squeezed by those two moving averages. A breakout above or below may result in an explosive move to the prevailing break.
Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 332.10 on a break above the previous week high at 314.70 (scenario 1) however a break below the 50-week moving average estimated at 296.90 may trigger a bearish run down to a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement at 279.63 (scenario 2).