Asian stock markets advanced on Monday following China’s decision to implement its 3rd interest rate cut since November 2014.
European markets closed mixed on yesterday session, as Greece’s reform talks with the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, continues. The Greek government remains hopeful that the talks will lead to vital aid being released, which will enable the country to avoid default.
The Index rose 0.92% since the start of the month and 18.86% year to date and the correction may not be over yet! DAX30 fell on yesterday session on a narrow range day, creating an inside day and closed near the low of the day but above the 10-day moving average.
Expecting an upward move to a daily resistance at 11,895 on a break above previous day high at 11,730 (scenario 1) or a break below previous day low at 11,632 could push the Index down to a daily support at 11,405.5.
Ger30 is a CFD written over DAX30 futures.
European equities closed lower on yesterday session with investor sentiment restrained by a mixed earnings reports and the further deterioration of Greece’s economic outlook leading the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s to cut its credit rating to “CCC+” from “B-“.
Today on the economic agenda we will have the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-year in March is expected to rise from 0.0% to 0.1% showing that inflation is kicking in and the Preliminary Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April that is estimated to rise from 93 to 94 displaying that consumers are willing to spend money.
The Usa500 since the start of April rose 2.08% and is in a bullish phase change. Yesterday, the Usa500 initially fell but found enough buying pressure at 2088.50 to turn around but still closing in the red near the high of the day. The stochastic is showing a overbought market setting lower highs and price is making higher highs, signs that the upside may begin to get exhausted.
Expecting a downward move to a daily support at 2,035.25 on a break below a daily support at 2,078.50 (scenario 1).
Usa500 is a CFD written over S&P500 futures.
In the Eurozone, the Greek issues still weigh as the country is said to run out of cash this week on the 9th of April, when it will also have to face a payment of 450M euros to the IMF. The fall in commodity prices hit the Aussie.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate despite calls for another rate cut. However, implied further easing measures may be introduced in the next policy meeting this week. The RBA preferred to assess the impact of February’s cut before lowering rates once again. Australian cash rate is expected to remain at 2.25%.
EURAUD initially fell on Friday’s session but found enough buying pressure on the 50-day moving average to turn around and closed in the green near the high of the day, also creating an inside day. The pair is in a recovery phase and is getting ready for another potential phase change, from recovery to accumulation phase. Stochastic in showing a overbought market but even with the pair well into overbought territory, we should not fight the strong upward trend.
Expecting an upward move to a daily resistance at 1.4668 on a break above Friday’s high at 1.4388 (scenario 1) or a break below Friday’s low could trigger a sell-off to a key level at 1.4066.
Gold has been rallying on bad news as it pushes back expectations to a rate hike later in the future and falling on positive economic news as odds are raised for a June rate hike.
More volatility is on the horizon as the biggest report of the month is still to come as Bureau of Labor Statistics will release nonfarm payrolls data today. However, gold markets are closed in recognition of Good Friday and investors will have to wait until at least Sunday 23h GMT, when electronic markets open to react to the numbers.
Gold initially fell but found enough buying pressure on the 10-day moving average to turn around and close still in the red near the open of the day. The precious metal fell 0.88% last month and is in potential phase change from bearish to warning. The Stochastic is showing bullish momentum and is above the mid 50 line.
Expecting an upward move to a daily key level at 1,219.80 on a break above previous day high at 1,207.25 (scenario 1) or a break below previous day low could throw the yellow metal to a daily key level at 1,182.47 (scenario 2).
U.S stocks couldn’t maintain Monday’s momentum as traders take their signs from bearish action overseas on the last day of the first quarter. Things will be relatively quiet on the economic and earnings fronts.
We have a busy data week ahead of us, but many investors will be focusing on Friday’s release of nonfarm payroll data for March. The FOMC members continue to point at the labour market and particularly wage growth as a “data trigger” for the first-rate increase. This latest reading of the labour market could bring expectations back into June or push them out to the end of the year.
The Usa500 last month fell more than 2.0% and is in a potential phase change, from a bullish phase to a warning phase, trading below the 50-day moving average. Yesterday, the Usa500 fell on a narrow range day that created an inside day and close near the low of the day. Stochastic is showing a slight bullish momentum.
Expecting a downward move to a daily support at 2,035.25 on a break below previous day low at 2,056.00 (scenario 1).
Usa500 is a CFD written over S&P500 futures.
The combination of Yellen’s comments and worries over Greece’s long-awaited list of reforms is dragging down the Euro. But even after Greece finally turned over its long-awaited list of reforms didn’t automatically open up the free flow of funds from creditors and talks continues over this week.
Today on the economic agenda we have the retail sales in February from Germany that is expected to fall from 5.3% to 3.7% and the preliminary consumer price index from the Euro zone that is estimated to fall from 0.7% to 0.6% . On the other side of the Atlantic we will have from the U.S the consumer confidence in March that is estimated to fall from 96.4 to 96.0.
EURUSD fell on yesterday session with a narrow range day of 80 pips, creating an inside day and closed near the low of the day. The pair is still in a bearish phase and closed below the 10-day moving average. The stochastic is showing bearish momentum.
Expecting downward move to a Fibonacci level at 1.0680 on a break below previous day low at 1.0809 (scenario 1).
In the beginning of March copper prices had been consolidating, as China’s economic woes meant that it was in less demand for construction. But it started to rally last Friday, as investors rushed for the metal after the Federal Reserve produced a statement that was more dovish than expected.
Fundamentals in China, which constitute nearly half the global copper trade, also appear to be fading. Yesterday market sentiment was hit by China week preliminary HSBC Manufacturing (PMI) in March falling below the 50 mark reaching 49.2, a reading under 50 shows economy contraction.
The commodity since the start of March rose 3.63% and is in a recovery phase trading above the 10-day moving average. On yesterday session copper fell on typically digestion day and close near the low of the day, making an inside day. The Stochastic is showing a overbought market and is signaling a bearish momentum.
Expecting downward move to a daily key level at 269.85 on a break below previous day low at 277.50 (scenario 1).