Since the beginning of the year the currency pair gained over 8.5% however last week ended with a loss more than 1.5% and is in a warning phase since late September.
Last week the AUDUSD fell with a wide range and closed near the low of the week, in addition closed below the previous week range, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.
The wide range, wide-spread weekly candle with below average volume displays evidence of an anomaly, signs that a downward move may not follow thru.
The stochastic is showing is setting lower highs while price is making higher highs, signs of a potential bearish divergence.
Expecting a downward move to a Fibonacci retracement at 0.7645 (scenario 1) or even down to another Fibonacci retracement at 0.7531 (scenario 2) on a break below other Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7758.