Since the beginning of the year the commodity lost more than 16.0% although last week rose almost 6.0% and continues in a bearish phase since late February.
Last week the sugar rallied with a wide range and closed near the high of the week, furthermore the soft commodity managed to close above the previous week high, which suggests a strong bullish momentum.
The stochastic is showing an extreme oversold market and begins to display a shy bullish momentum.
The commodity bounce from the weekly support and made it back above the 200-week moving average, signs of buying pressure but a close above the 10-week moving average would bring a deeper correction to the upside.
Expecting an upward move to a Fibonacci retracement at 17.63 on a break above other Fibonacci retracement at 16.72 (scenario 1) however a break below from the weekly support at 15.14 may set in motion another bearish downward move to other weekly support at 13.80 (scenario 2).