Since the beginning of the year the currency pair lost almost 3.50% and last week fell more than 0.5% but continues in a warning phase since late mid-January 2017.
Last week the USDJPY initially rose but found enough resistance at the 10-week moving average to reverse and closed near the low of the week, but managed to close within the previous week range, which suggests being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.
The currency pair is in a downward correction since 2016 high and is consolidating at the confluence of a weekly support and the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement.
The stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum although is still above the 50 mid line.
Expecting a downward move to a Fibonacci retracement at 109.925 on a break below another Fibonacci retracement at 111.986 (scenario 1) however a break above the 10-week moving average at 115.211 may trigger a bullish run back up to the weekly resistance at 118.837 (scenario 2).