The European Central Bank (ECB) as signal that more stimulus is coming for Europe’s economy that could complicate the US Federal Reserve (Fed) own message this week about when it might raise the interest rates.
The Fed was already treading cautiously about whether it would begin raising US interest rates in December 2015. Analysts do not now see a rate hike until the beginning of 2016.
Regarding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision, many where expecting the central bank to expand their quantitative easing (QE) programme. However doubts regarding expansion were exacerbated last week as Japan Prime Minister adviser Honda stated that there is no need for additional easing by the BoJ at this stage, which saw immediate strength go through the JPY.
Since the beginning of the year the USDJPY rose 0.8% and is in a potential phase change from a recovery to an accumulation phase. The pair rose with a wide range last week and closed in the green near the high of the week. The stochastic is showing a light bullish momentum but is still below the 50 mid line.
Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 124.15 on a break above a weekly support at 121.84 (scenario 1) or a break below a weekly support at 118.83 could throw the pair down to year low at 115.85 (scenario 2).