Nearly all the indicators that Chair (Janet) Yellen and other FOMC participants have recently cited as important in assessing labor market conditions showed some degree of deterioration. Markets are now likely to downgrade any likelihood of a policy move in 2015.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes may shed further light onto the most recent rate decision, which was interpreted as dovish by the market, however the fact that Fed’s Yellen held a press conference immediately after the decision limits the amount of new information that the minutes may provide.
The UsaTec rallied more than 2.5% since the start of the month and rose 1.1% year to date; the Index is in a bearish phase since the end of September after the death cross. Last week the Index initially fell but found enough buying pressure to turn around and closed at the high of the week on above average volume. The stochastic is showing bearish momentum and is below the 50 mid line.
Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 4,347.50 on a break above previous week high at 4,261.25 (scenario 1) or a break below a weekly resistance at 4,247.50 may push the Index back down to a weekly support at 4,118.25 (scenario 2).
UsaTec is a CFD written over Nasdaq 100 futures.