The Australian dollar, which has been struggling past weeks, strengthened on the back of thousands of new jobs created and on a falling 6.2% unemployment rate in August, as the economy continues to shift away from a massive resources investment boom.
Weaker US inflation and consumer sentiment have driven the Federal Reserve (Fed) to take a more cautious and dovish approach when considering the long-anticipated rate hike without ruling it out.
This week, the main event on the blackboard and the one that all markets have been waiting for is the FOMC meeting on the 17th September.
The expectations of a Fed rate hike is significantly lower as participants continue to cope with the imminent fears of a Chinese growth slowdown allied with inflation concerns may ultimately prove to be enough to convince the Fed to hold back taking any action despite the robust labour market in the US.
The AUDUSD fell 0.3% since the start of the month and plunged 12.2% year to date plus is in well-established bearish phase. The currency rallied last week with a narrow range and closed in the green near the high of the week, creating an inside week. The Stochastic is showing an oversold market setting higher lows and price is making lower lows, signs that the downside may begin to get exhausted.
Expecting an upward move to a weekly resistance at 0.7533 on a break above previous week high at 0.7099 (scenario 1) and a break below previous weekly low at 0.6913 may throw the pair to a weekly Fibonacci extension at 0.6190 (scenario 2).